News
Japan Cherry Blossom Forecast for Spring 2026 (as of January 29th)
2026.02.03
Japan Weather Association (JWA) released its part 1 forecast for cherry blossoms and full bloom for 53 locations throughout Japan on Thursday, January 29th, 2026.
Key Points of This Article
- For 2026, cherry blossom blooming is expected to be generally in line with the average in western Japan, near average to earlier in eastern Japan, and earlier than average in northern Japan.
- This year’s cherry blossoms are expected to start blooming first in Fukuoka and Tokyo on March 21st. This article explains the forecast blooming dates and regional trends for major cities across Japan.
- The timing of cherry blossom blooming is expected to influence population movement and demand, highlighting the importance of leveraging weather data for business planning.
Table of Contents
2026 Cherry Blossom Trends
For 2026, cherry blossom blooming is expected to be generally in line with the average in western Japan, near average to earlier in eastern Japan, and earlier than average in northern Japan.
This year’s cherry blossoms are expected to start blooming first in Fukuoka and Tokyo on March 21st, for Kochi and Nagoya on the 22nd, Hiroshima on the 24th, and Osaka on the 25th.
Then the cherry blossom front moves towards the Hokuriku region by the end of March, with flowers expected to bloom in Kanazawa on the 31st.
Tohoku will welcome the cherry blossom season in April, with flowers blooming in Sendai on April 4th and in Aomori on the 17th. In Hokkaido, Sapporo, the blossom is expected to arrive on the 26th of April, just before the Golden Week Holiday.
![[Japan Weather Association] Cherry Blossom Forecast Map (Released on January 29, 2026)](/wp-content/uploads/Cherry-Blossom-Forecast-Map_January-29-2026.jpg)
＊The cherry blossom forecast for all 53 locations is available on tenki.jp, a weather forecast media site operated by JWA. (Only Available in Japanese)
Details of Cherry Blossom Trends
Around November, the buds of cherry blossoms enter a state of dormancy and awaken after being exposed to low temperatures for a certain period during the winter (breaking dormancy*).
Though temperatures were high nationwide from December last year to mid-January this year, temperatures dropped sharply in late January. This may have caused a slight delay in the breaking of dormancy, but the process is believed to have progressed smoothly overall.
Going forward, significant temperature fluctuations are expected in western and eastern Japan. While February temperatures are forecast to be near average, March temperatures are expected to be near or above average in western Japan, and above average in eastern Japan.
Consequently, the cherry blossom is expected to be generally near average in western Japan, and near to or earlier than average in eastern Japan.
In northern Japan, February temperatures are forecast to be near average, while temperatures from March to April are expected to be above average, leading to earlier-than-average cherry blossom blooming.
＊Breaking dormancy: Flower buds that formed in the previous summer and entered dormancy awaken when exposed to low temperatures for a certain period during the winter.
What Is the Japan Weather Association’s Cherry Blossom Forecast?
About Japan Weather Association
Since its establishment in 1950, Japan Weather Association (JWA) has consistently employed cutting-edge weather observation and forecasting technology.
Leveraging the forecasting techniques honed to address Japan’s diverse weather conditions such as seasonal variations with significant temperature differences and heavy rainfall as well as natural disaster risks like typhoons and torrential rains, JWA provides accurate and highly reliable weather information both domestically and internationally.
From January to April every year, Japan Weather Association (JWA) announces the cherry blossom forecast for various locations around Japan. The forecast of the dates when cherry blossoms will bloom is released on the Cherry Blossom Forecast page of the dedicated weather forecast website “tenki.jp.”
Data Utilized for Forecasting Cherry Blossoms
- Temperature observation data from the previous autumn to the forecast date
- Temperature forecast data from the forecast date to the blooming period (from Japan Weather Association’s point forecasts and long-term forecasts)
Methods and characteristics of the JWA’s cherry blossom forecast
We use our proprietary forecasting model that focuses on the temperature trends from autumn onwards, which significantly influences the growth process of the cherry blossom buds. Our forecasts are based on accurate observation data from sample trees at local meteorological observatories and cooperating agencies, emphasizing meteorological principles.
＊Please refrain from unauthorized corporate use of information within Weather X, including the “Cherry Blossom Forecast,” such as citation in press releases, use for promotional purposes, or publication on your own media or digital signage.
If you are considering corporate use for providing information to users or for product PR, please Contact Us.
Schedule for the 2026 Cherry Blossom Forecasts Releases
The Cherry Blossom Forecast page will publish the next forecast on Thursday, February 26. From March onward, both blooming and full bloom forecasts will be updated and announced weekly every Wednesday (or Thursday if Wednesday is a public holiday).
Glossary of Cherry Blossom Forecast Terms
What Are the Criteria for the Blooming Dates?
The criteria are the same as those used by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The blooming date is defined as the first day when five to six or more flowers have opened on the designated observation tree (i.e. sample tree.)
What Does “Normal” Mean?
“Normal” refers to the average value over the past 30 years. Currently, the average for the period from 1991 to 2020 is used.
- Much earlier: 7 or more days earlier than normal
- Earlier: 3 to 6 days earlier than normal
- Near normal: 1 or 2 days earlier or later than normal
- Later: 3 to 6 days later than normal
- Much later: 7 or more days later than normal
Business Utilization of Cherry Blossom Forecasts
The cherry blossom season is one of the peak periods of international travelers visiting Japan. JWA’s accurate cherry blossom blooming and full bloom forecasts contribute to businesses in various industries, such as tourism, accommodation, transportation, media, and event planning. If you are interested in JWA’s forecasts, please feel free to Contact Us.
FAQ
Q. What are the criteria for the blooming and full bloom dates?
A. The criteria are the same as those used by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The blooming date is defined as the first day when five to six or more flowers have opened on the designated observation tree (i.e. sample tree), and the full bloom date is the first day when more than 80% of the buds have opened on the sample tree.
Q. How many locations are expected?
A. Forecasts are announced for 53 locations in January and February, and for approximately 80 locations nationwide from March onward. The forecast locations consist of 53 sample trees observed by local meteorological observatories and approximately 30 additional locations where observation data are obtained from cooperating organizations such as municipalities / local governments and parks.
Q. What are the methods and characteristics of the Japan Weather Association’s cherry blossom forecast?
A. We use our proprietary forecasting model that focuses on the temperature trends from autumn onwards, which significantly influence the growth process of the cherry blossom buds. Our forecasts are based on accurate observation data from sample trees at local meteorological observatories and cooperating agencies, emphasizing meteorological principles. Japan Weather Association has been conducting cherry blossom forecasts since 2007, making this year the 20th year of our endeavour.
Q. What data are utilized for forecasting cherry blossoms?
A. The following data are used.
- Temperature observation data from the previous autumn to the forecast date
- Temperature forecast data from the forecast date to the blooming period (from Japan Weather Association’s point forecasts and long-term forecasts).
The temperature from the previous autumn to spring significantly influences the cherry blossoming period. Cherry buds form during the previous summer and then enter dormancy. Exposure to a certain period of low temperatures during winter breaks this dormancy, and the buds grow and bloom with rising temperatures. It is believed that higher temperatures promote faster bud growth and earlier blooming.