Japan Cherry Blossom Forecast for Spring 2026 (as of March 18th)

2026.02.03

Japan Weather Association (JWA) released its part 3 forecast for cherry blossoms and full bloom for 84 locations throughout Japan on Wednesday, March 18th, 2026.

Key Points of Cherry Blossom and Full Bloom Forecast for 2026

• For this year’s Cherry Blossom season, the cherry blossom’s blooming and Full Bloom is expected to arrive around average or earlier than average in western Japan, and earlier than average in many areas of eastern and northern parts of Japan.
• From the Tokai region to Hokkaido, some areas are expected to see significantly earlier blooming and Full Bloom than average. This article explains the forecast blooming dates and regional trends for major cities across Japan.
• The timing of cherry blossom blooming is expected to influence population movement and demand, highlighting the importance of leveraging weather data for business planning.

Table of Contents

Trend of Blossoming and Full Bloom

For this year’s Cherry Blossom season, the cherry blossom’s blooming and Full Bloom is expected to arrive around average or earlier than average in western Japan, and earlier than average in many areas of eastern and northern parts of Japan, with some areas from the Tokai region to Hokkaido expecting to see a significantly earlier blooming and Full Bloom than average.

The first blossoming was seen in Sukumo1 on March 15th, followed by the sample trees under observation by the local meteorological observatories in Kochi, Gifu and Kofu on the 16th of March, and Nagoya on the 17th. Looking ahead, the cherry blossoms are expected to bloom in Tokyo on the 19th, Fukuoka and Hiroshima on the 21st, Osaka on the 22nd and Kanazawa on the 30th of March, with the blooming front expected to move across the wider area from Kyushu region to the southern part Tohoku region by the end of March.

In April the blossoming is expected to arrive in Sendai on the 1st, Niigata on the 2nd, Aomori on the 15th, and lastly likely to reach Sapporo on the 26th.

1 The information for Sukumo, Kochi Prefecture, is not from sample trees of the meteorological observatories, but from independent observation points of JWA.

The first location expected to reach Full Bloom is Gifu on March 23rd, then Nagoya on the 24th, followed by Tokyo and Kochi on the 25th. Then the Full Bloom front is expected to reach across a wider area from the Kyushu region to the southern part of Tohoku region by early April. Northern Tohoku will reach Full Bloom from mid to late April, followed by many areas in Hokkaido being able to enjoy the Full Bloom during the Golden Week Holidays2.

2 The 2026 Golden Week in Japan runs from April 29th to May 6th.

*The cherry blossom and full bloom forecast for all 84 locations is available on tenki.jp, a weather forecast media site operated by JWA. (Only Available in Japanese)

Basis of the Blossoming Predictions

Although there have been periods of colder weather since February, nationwide Japan has experienced higher temperatures than average, which has accelerated the cherry blossom buds’ development at a rapid pace.

Looking ahead, the temperatures are expected to stay higher than average nationwide until late March, and for eastern and northern Japan the temperatures are expected to be higher than earlier predicted. This means that at locations where flowering is approaching, flower buds’ development is progressing and as a result, the predicted flowering date has been moved up by about 1 to 3 days, and the predicted date for Full Bloom has been moved up by about a week at some locations. Temperatures in northern Japan are also expected to remain higher than average from April onward, which will encourage faster bud growth.

*For the latest cherry blossom and full bloom forecast, please visit tenki.jp, a weather forecast media site operated by JWA. (Only Available in Japanese)

What Is the Japan Weather Association’s Cherry Blossom Forecast?

About Japan Weather Association

Since its establishment in 1950, Japan Weather Association (JWA) has consistently employed cutting-edge weather observation and forecasting technology.

Leveraging the forecasting techniques honed to address Japan’s diverse weather conditions such as seasonal variations with significant temperature differences and heavy rainfall as well as natural disaster risks like typhoons and torrential rains, JWA provides accurate and highly reliable weather information both domestically and internationally.

From January to April every year, Japan Weather Association (JWA) announces the cherry blossom forecast for various locations around Japan. The forecast of the dates when cherry blossoms will bloom is released on the Cherry Blossom Forecast page of the dedicated weather forecast website “tenki.jp.”

Data Utilized for Forecasting Cherry Blossoms

• Temperature observation data from the previous autumn to the forecast date
• Temperature forecast data from the forecast date to the blooming period (from Japan Weather Association’s point forecasts and long-term forecasts)

Methods and Characteristics of the JWA’s Cherry Blossom Forecast

We use our proprietary forecasting model that focuses on the temperature trends from autumn onwards, which significantly influences the growth process of the cherry blossom buds. Our forecasts are based on accurate observation data from sample trees at local meteorological observatories and cooperating agencies, emphasizing meteorological principles.

*Please refrain from unauthorized corporate use of information within Weather X, including the “Cherry Blossom Forecast,” such as citation in press releases, use for promotional purposes, or publication on your own media or digital signage.
If you are considering corporate use for providing information to users or for product promotion, please Contact Us.

Glossary of Cherry Blossom Forecast Terms

What are the Criteria for the Blooming Dates?

The criteria are the same as those used by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The blooming date is defined as the first day when five to six or more flowers have opened on the designated observation tree (i.e. sample tree.)

What Does “Normal” Mean?

“Normal” refers to the average value over the past 30 years. Currently, the average for the period from 1991 to 2020 is used.

• Much earlier: 7 or more days earlier than normal
• Earlier: 3 to 6 days earlier than normal
• Average: within two days of the normal date
• Later: 3 to 6 days later than normal
• Much later: 7 or more days later than normal

Business Utilization of Cherry Blossom Forecasts

The cherry blossom season is one of the peak periods of international travelers visiting Japan. JWA’s accurate cherry blossom blooming and full bloom forecasts contribute to businesses in various industries, such as tourism, accommodation, transportation, media, and event planning. If you are interested in JWA’s forecasts, please feel free to Contact Us.

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